This week, Jeff Pulver noticed that everyone at SXSWi was keeping in touch via Foursquare or Gowalla, rather than the old standbys of Twitter and Facebook. This shift makes sense within the context of a live event, because Foursquare and Gowalla are mobile apps, best employed in a situation where everybody’s on the move.
But Jeff goes a step further, suggesting that Twitter may have just become “less relevant.”
This leads me to two questions:
How is the relevance of a tool established?
and
When is the right time to try out a new tool?
I Never Leave Home Without My Salad Shooter
A tool is only useful if it solves a problem. And that means a certain number of people must share the same problem before a tool can become relevant, much less sustainable.
Facebook solved a lot of the design and interface problems that MySpace suffered from… but people didn’t NEED Facebook until they realized MySpace sucked.
Twitter replaced instant messages (and even blogs) for some people… and then, over time, a lot of users worked those “old” tools back into their workflow because they realized Twitter didn’t do everything; just some things (and not always reliably).
Our increasing reliance on mobile apps means services like Foursquare or Gowalla will become increasingly relevant as their userbase (and features) increase and improve… but until there’s a critical mass of users, those services will still feel like “optional” apps to the people who can live without them.
Does the shift Pulver cites mean that Twitter really is less relevant today than it was last month? Only if the general needs of Twitter’s userbase shift collectively toward a need that Twitter can’t fulfill — and that’s dependent on user habit and on the number of Gowalla-ing users themselves.
No One Thinks an Empty Room Is Relevant
Remember Jaiku?
Like Plurk, Ping and a dozen other apps, Jaiku was supposed to be a “Twitter-killer.”
Jaiku had a better interface, better functionality, and it even solved one of the problems Twitter created: it threaded conversations in a way that Twitter never bothered doing (and still hasn’t, even today).
But despite being purchased by Google, Jaiku still lives on the fringe of the social media conversation while Twitter thrives.
Why?
Because nobody used it.
The target users of a Twitter-like tool were already using Twitter, and unless the people THEY considered relevant all moved to Jaiku en masse, they were staying where everyone else already was.
Lesson? Communities value interactions over functionality.
Thus, Twitter overcame its own sub-par design simply by being the first and most widely-adopted tool.
To supplant Twitter in terms of overall relevance, Foursquare or Gowalla would need to do (at least some of) what Twitter already does, plus add new features that Twitter can’t replicate and which people decide they can’t live without.
Biding My Time Until the Singularity
So, when’s the right time for someone who’s never used Foursquare or Gowalla to start exploring them?
What makes any tool alluring enough for you to slip it into your workflow?
Do the users drive a tool’s relevance, or do the creators?
Time… and our own choices… will tell.
Meanwhile, I guess I should download Foursquare and Gowalla on my new Droid Eris and decide just how relevant they are for me. And while your mileage may vary, if you do something amazing with either app, you might make them more relevant to me.
See how that works?
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Tags: audience, events, Foursquare, networking, perception, Social Media, Sociology, Twitter
I'll be interested to see what you think about Gowalla and 4SQ. As I said to you yesterday, I think Gowalla has a much smarter interface, but it may not matter. 4SQ clearly has the edge in users. Like my dad always said, he who eats the fastest, gets the mostest. Right now, 4SQ is pigging out.
Tks Justin.
You may enjoy the mildly- related post re Twitter from Dan Starr:
http://www.dannystarr.com/2010/03/twitter-is-ge...
I don't know if Twitter is any less relevant, just less new aka exciting. Remember that week that Google Buzz created a massive amount of…well…buzz? Now, at least from my very small sample size, Buzz has already fallen onto the back burner for many users.
Foursquare and Gowalla are certainly all the hype right now (my latest post is a 4sq case study), but, Twitter has replaced RSS services for many; I don't see Foursquare and Gowalla challenging this aspect.
Great post again
Social comments and analytics for this post…
This post was mentioned on Twitter by kelvin8048: Is Twitter Less Relevant Today? http://j.mp/bgB1IR...
Great post but let's agree to disagree. Geolocation based applications may have been seen or viewed more often in the twitter streams and talked about much more but, without the solid backbone of twitter, I don't think those two applications have a chance standing alone. Also, there's a lot you can't do with those two that you can do with twitter and facebook.
I might even pose the idea that if those two names (facebook and twitter) evolved enough, Foursquare and Gowalla would be nothing more than a memory…
Maybe there is a lot to be said about Foursquare and Gowalla, but let's face it, Facebook and twitter reign supreme.
Great perspective though – always interested in the other side of the coin.
As a single woman who cares deeply about privacy, (and who doesn't have an internet enabled cell phone) I will probably never use Gowalla or 4Square. Likewise, if someone I follow on Twitter uses either one in tweets, I seriously consider whether I still want to follow them, and have unfollowed folks after such consideration.
That said, my opinion is one in a sea of opinions. Like you said, your mileage may vary.
I went to high school with Lorrie Cranor, a CMU professor who is a key “privacy” guru. Here's a Pgh Tribune-Review article concerning “location sharing” apps: http://bit.ly/aYofHq
If we have learned anything from the rise and fall of Geocities, AOL, Friendster, MySpace – social sharing platforms, portals, etc. only stay relevant when the community is strong. Once the community breaks down, considers options, the platform ceases to be relevant and its members will spread to the next hot entity. So as long as Facebook and Twitter keep their communities happy I can't see Foursquare / Gowalla scaling too quickly.
Remember, as of last week Four Square counted 435,000+ members. That is surely a reflection of early adopters grabbing hold. People will chase the next best thing and the count will come up, but unless they achieve pure utility / indispensability Foursquare and the like could be become just flash in the pans. Especially if privacy concerns take hold in geo-based apps and functions.
Will be interesting to watch.
http://jreckseidler.posterous.com
I'm skeptical of location based apps for all the same reasons everyone here
has mentioned. But we feared the privacy issues of Facebook and MySpace and
that didn't stop oversharers from flocking to those services.
If Foursquare or Gowalla can differentiate themselves from Twitter and
Facebook in a way that sustains them independent of being acquired by the
competition, we shall see…
[...] I thought it was interesting. I used Jeff’s initial observation as a jumping-off point for my own broader post about the nature of web tools, and how their relevance (and audience) is forever [...]
Foursquare is a neat concept but they can't copyright the whole geolocation angle. Twitter is already experimenting with location based stuff and Facebook can't be far behind so will either crush the uprising or assimilate them.
In truth though, it's a couple of years away from being useful because most phones are not enabled. Right now it'll always be a hit at something like SXSW where everyone in the vicinity is hooked up but it's not going to take off at the next Suasage Manufacturers Expo.
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Chris Brogan, Jeff Turner, Doug Haslam, –Deb, Justin Kownacki and others. Justin Kownacki said: Is Twitter Less Relevant Today? http://bit.ly/dxPVuL [...]
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